The winner of the 2026 Nobel Prize in Literature will be announced next week, on Thursday, October 8. Said winner will take home 12.0 million Swedish kronor (SEK), or a little over 1.2 million dollars, along with a lifetime of laurels. But who will it be? No one outside of the Swedish Academy can say for sure, but if you’d like to put some money on it, the bookies shall oblige—and the odds they’re offering might give us a hint. Or, just as often, not!
The previous year’s champion, László Krasznahorkai, began with odds of 6 to 1 at this moment last year; this year’s lineup shows no overwhelming favorite. Yet Can Xue has reclaimed the top spot after a brief drop from the top five in 2025; I keep wondering if this could finally be her year, and I will pose the question once more. Gerald Murnane remains in the mix; it could be his moment as well. Murakami, Pynchon, and Atwood hold odds that look too steep to be credible winners. J.K. Rowling shares the same odds as Louise Erdrich and Yoko Tawada, which I consider a misalignment. In my view, Alexis Wright would be a compelling laureate.
In any case, nobody can predict the outcome with certainty, but here are the bookmakers’ odds as this piece is being written, according to the British betting staple Ladbrokes. Have a look and maybe place a bet—one of these individuals will soon become our latest Nobel Laureate. Or perhaps it will be someone entirely unexpected! Anything could happen. Perhaps Bob Dylan will win again!*
Can Xue is offered at odds of 10 to 1
Haruki Murakami is offered at odds of 14 to 1
Gerald Murnane is offered at odds of 16 to 1
Thomas Pynchon is offered at odds of 16 to 1
Cristina Rivera Garza is offered at odds of 20 to 1
Enrique Vila-Matas is offered at odds of 20 to 1
Lidia Jorge is offered at odds of 20 to 1
Ludmila Ulitskaja is offered at odds of 20 to 1
Margaret Atwood is offered at odds of 20 to 1
Michel Houellebecq is offered at odds of 20 to 1
Karl Ove Knausgaard is offered at odds of 22 to 1
Alan Mabanckou is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Alexis Wright is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Ali Ahmad Said Esber is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Carl Frode Tiller is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Christian Kracht is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Colm Tóibín is offered at odds of 25 to 1
César Aira is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Deborah Levy is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Diamela Eltit is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Don DeLillo is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Emmanuel Carrere is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Ersi Sotiropoulos is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Ibrahim al-Koni is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Leila Aboulela is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Mia Couto is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Michael Ondaatje is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Mircea Cărtărescu is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Norbert Gstrein is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Pierre Michon is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Salim Barakat is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Salman Rushdie is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Scholastique Mukasonga is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Sebastian Barry is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Tahar Ben Jelloun is offered at odds of 25 to 1
Adelia Prado is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Andrey Kurkov is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Anne Carson is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Antonio Muñoz Molina is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Botho Strauss is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Bushra al-Maqtari is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Caryl Phillips is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Colson Whitehead is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Cristina Peri Rossi is offered at odds of 33 to 1
David Grossman is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Edwidge Danticat is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Garielle Lutz is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Hamid Ismailov is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Helen Garner is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Homero Aridjis is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Hélène Cixous is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Ida Vitale is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Jamaica Kincaid is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Leslie Marmon Silko is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Marie NDiaye is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Mieko Kanai is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Patrick Chamoiseau is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Rachel Cusk is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Raul Zúrita is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Robert Macfarlane is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Ryszard Krynicki is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Samar Yazbek is offered at odds of 33 to 1
William T. Vollmann is offered at odds of 33 to 1
Ananda Devi is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Duong Thu Huong is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Hwang Sok-yong is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Ivan Vladislavić is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Joy Harjo is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Joyce Carol Oates is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Linton Kwesi Johnson is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Mahmoud Dowlatabadi is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Marilynne Robinson is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Martha Nussbaum is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Nuruddin Farah is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Paulina Chiziane is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Vladimir Sorokin is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Yan Lianke is offered at odds of 40 to 1
Ali Smith is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Amitav Ghosh is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Boubacar Boris Diop is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Claudio Magris is offered at odds of 50 to 1
David Peace is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Ko Un is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Louise Erdrich is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Murray Bail is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Patricia Grace is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Stephen King is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Xiaolu Guo is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Yoko Tawada is offered at odds of 50 to 1
Yu Hua is offered at odds of 50 to 1
J.K. Rowling is offered at odds of 50 to 1
*Bob Dylan will not win again.
